After a busy couple of years, small indications suggest the Cook County real estate market is starting to stabilize.
“The pace is not as frenzied,” said John Oberholtzer, a Cook County realtor with TimberWolff Realty. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the real estate market along the North Shore, particularly in Cook County, hit an unprecedented peak as remote work became more common, creating opportunities for individuals to transition from the city to rural small towns.
Simultaneously, homebuyers also explored vacation rental investment opportunities and weekend retreats.
While the post-pandemic real estate market may not be as frenzied, some segments of the market are still in high demand. In late January, Cook County Assessor Bob Thompson released an article about the start of the 2024 real estate market. In the report, Thompson said he has observed a slowdown in buyer demand during the past year. However, he added, “One thing is evident: Cook County continues to attract buyers, even when other markets have been turning the corner and are starting to see leveling or downward trends.”
While the demand remains high in Cook County, Oberholtzer said, “Buyers are becoming a little more picky in the marketplace.” Rather than purchasing vacant land or fixer-uppers, buyers are focused on Lake Superior shoreline property. He said Lake Superior properties are “still going fast, and you’re probably going to have multiple offers.”
In his report, Thompson recognized a similar trend: “Lakeshore properties are still in high demand, especially Lake Superior shoreline.” The market value for shoreline properties purchased in 2023 has also increased. In analyzing the 2023 home sales data, Thompson identified three trends in Cook County concerning market value: non-lakeshore residential sales showed a trend of 7.95 percent, shoreline residential sales displayed a trend of 13.3 percent, and vacant land over 34.5 acres trended 11.8 percent. “According to these figures, if you purchased a lakeshore property in January 2023 at fair market value, the data suggest the market value of that property has increased about 13 percent since it was purchased,” he said.
The shift in demand towards Lake Superior property is attributed to various factors, Oberholtzer said. Given that many of the local contractors are booked well in advance and with the cost of lumber and construction, many homebuyers are seeking turn-key homes. “That’s a real hurdle for buyers to be thinking about,” he said. “A lot of the folks shifted into buying something pre-existing. And it has really changed the dynamic.”
As for buyer demographics, Oberholtzer said that since he started in the real estate industry 20 years ago, most of his clients were predominately retired individuals seeking a second home. That trend has now changed with the onset of remote work. In recent years, he has noticed more 30- to 40-year-old technology professionals seeking a getaway place or investment opportunity along the North Shore. “Some of those people are doing a little vacation rental to make that dream happen sooner,” he said.
Sue Nichols of Red Pine Realty in Grand Marais has observed a similar pattern in recent months. She said many of the interested homebuyers are individuals from the Twin Cities seeking a vacation home. “So that’s what we’re seeing. Not a ton of local buyers.”
According to January 2024 MLS real estate data, the median listing home price in Cook County is $499,000. Given the lingering strong demand and moderate home inventory, Nichols said buyers are not offering much more than the asking price. “We haven’t seen the competition where you get people offering more than asking.”
Looking towards the remainder of 2024 and the years ahead, Nichols and Oberholtzer said they are eager to see how the numerous apartment housing developments proposed by the Cook County Housing Redevelopment Authority will alter the real estate market. A 51-unit mixed-income multifamily apartment building is slated to begin construction in spring 2024. In addition, progress on various other proposed apartment housing developments is underway.
Oberholtzer said, “I’m still hopeful that all that works in a sensible way and really good meaningful housing for people.”
Nichols said she believes the availability of apartments in Grand Marais will allow many seniors to transition from single-family homes into smaller residences, allowing more supply of homes on the market. Nichols said there is a strong demand for affordable housing in Grand Marais, and the potential apartment developments will “open up a lot more housing, hopefully, for local people.”
Another projection Nichols has for the coming years is the trend for younger individuals to join together to buy land and build new housing models or smaller structures. “I think that’s another thing that I hope to see happen in the next couple of years.”
